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Aging America Takes a Break

Age wave, aging America, and other terms have been used to express the population shift occurring in this country. Most people have a general understanding that we live in an “aging society.” However, even many people who work in the field of aging may be surprised if they dig a little deeper into the facts.

For example, some might be surprised to learn that the number of people age 65 to 69 declined by 6 percent during the 1990s. Lisa Hetzel and Annetta Smith with the Census Bureau remind us “this decline reflects the relative low number of births in the late 1920s and 1930s, which in turn lead to a relatively small number of people reaching age 65 during the decade of 1990 to 2000.”

Census 2000 was the first time in history of the census that the 65 years and over population did not grow faster than the total population. People 65 years and over represented a smaller proportion of the US population in 2000 than in 1990.

Every state in the US saw a growth in their older population during the 1990s. However, growth varied widely. Rhode Island’s 65+ population grew by 1.2%. On the other extreme, Nevada saw their older population grow by 71.5%.

Overall the 65+ population grew by 12 percent from during from 1990 to 2000. Thirty states saw their older population grow by double digits. Following Nevada’s 71.5%, the highest gainers were Alaska (60%), Arizona (39%), New Mexico (30), and Hawaii (28%). Older people evidently like the sun. These same five states were the leading gainers from 1980 to 1990.

The number of people 65+ in Arkansas grew by a very modest 6.8%, an increase of only 23,961 older individuals over the decade. During the previous decade Arkansas grew twice as fast (13.8%).

Another way to measure the older population is to look at the proportion of the 65+ group as a percent of the total population. Arkansas, for example, has historically ranked in top ten states in terms of the proportion of older residents. Back in the 1980s, Arkansas ranked third among all states in terms of the proportion of older people.

Unlike previous decades, during the 1990s, the proportion of the population composed of people 65 years and over declined nationally, in two regions of the country, and in over half of the states. In the Midwest, the proportion 65 years and over declined from 13.0 percent of its total population in 1990 to 12.8 percent in 2000, and the proportion in the South declined from 12.6 percent to 12.4 percent.

The states with the largest declines in the proportion 65 years and over were Oregon, Arkansas, and Idaho, which each declined about 1 percentage point between 1990 and 2000 to proportions of 12.8 percent, 14.0 percent, and 11.3 percent, respectively.

Although Florida continued to have the highest proportion 65 years and over, it looked a little less elderly in 2000 (17.6 percent), than in 1990 .(18.3 percent).

California has the largest number of people age 65 and over (3.6 million) followed by Florida (2.9 million), New York (2.4 million), Texas (2.0 million) and Pennsylvania (1.9 million). Ohio, Illinois, Michigan and New Jersey each have well over 1 million older residents. In fact, these nine states account for over half (52%) of all elderly in the United States.

During the 1990s, the most rapid growth of the older population occurred in the oldest age groups. The population 85 years and over increased by 38 percent, from 3.1 million to 4.2 million. The growth in this group is significant as they are the most frequent users of health care. Only 8% of those 65 to 69 years of age need the assistance of another person to function. However, for those 85+ almost 35% require assistance.

The large increase in the 85+ group has not translated into an increased demand for all long term care services.

The percent of people 65 years and over living in nursing homes declined from 5.1 percent in 1990 to 4.5 percent in 2000. This percent decline occurred for people 65 to 74 years, 75 to 84 years, and especially in the population 85 years and over, where only 18.2 percent lived in nursing homes in 2000, compared with 24.5 percent in 1990.

There are likely a number of reasons for the decline in the number of individuals living in nursing homes. Disability rates among older persons have declined substantially. Not only are older people are in better health, they are better off financially and better educated than their previous counterparts. Home and community based care programs grew much faster than the elderly population. In addition, 5% of the elderly now live in self-described senior housing of various types, many of which have supportive services available to their residents. The narrowing ratio of men to women in old age has contributed to the declining use of institutional care and will likely continue to do so over the next few decades. Cohorts of older persons who will reach the high risk years of 75 and older during the next two decades will have more adult children than previous cohorts.

This break in the aging of America will not last. By 2010 the older population will increase by a little over 5 million. Between 2010 and 2020, another 14 million will be added. In 2030 the 65 population will reach 71.1 million compared to the 36 million today. But these increases may not translate into the same demand for long term care services as in the past.

“While predicting the future is an uncertain art,” says Donald Redfoot, “the characteristics of the cohorts who will enter late old age during the next two to three decades “before the boom” suggest that demand for long-term supportive services—especially those offered in institutional settings—will grow very slightly, if at all.”

Redfoot, a senior policy advisor for AARP states, “Favorable demographic and socioeconomic trends should create a more consumer-driven market that will demand not only higher quality services but also a much higher quality of life.”